Do Nothing, Don’t Worry, Be Happy
Ok, so today’s post comes out of the smart people being dumb department. It’s prompted by a hot-off-the-press new survey, published on Oct. 7, of over nine thousand scientists from 115 countries.
This peer-reviewed study found that a disturbing chunk of the scientists surveyed from a broad swath of scientific fields are from the Do-Nothing-Don’t-Worry-Be-Happy approach to climate change.
The Guardian does a good job of capturing the gist of the situation with the text I highlight in red, below.
Need to do some serious heavy lifting in the present to overcome climate change? Nah. Tech will save our butts once again.
It’s important to realize that this is a minority view. Those surveyed who are in the problematic camp are about half the size those who aren’t. And even among those who are, only some of them are less likely to engage in collective climate action.
However, the stronger their Do-Nothing-Don’t-Worry-Be-Happy beliefs, the less actions they take.
“Averaging across all civic actions, a one-unit increase in techno-optimism decreases engagement by 3.2 percentage points.”
That they are scientists and not some blowhard on social media or on a neighborhood barstool makes this finding have a bit more bite. What’s more, the study also found that “climate scientists are not less prone to techno-optimism than other scientists.”
Unfortunately, the researchers tag this Do-Nothing-Don’t-Worry-Be-Happy nonsense with the moniker “techno-optimism.”
I say unfortunate because being optimistic about how tech can help us is a good thing, properly situated. It’s also accurate. On the whole, technology has improved the wellbeing of humanity significantly. And the accelerating rate of tech change or ARTC is our Third Catalytic Source of Transformation. It is part of The Catalytic-4 that together will set us on the right course and keep us moving towards victory.
By itself ARTC will not overcome climate change, and thinking that it will is dangerous and harmful to our efforts. But it has and will continue to play a vital role as an essential part of The Catalytic-4. That’s what I mean by “properly situated.” It must be teamed with the other three for it to remain free to play its role, and not be captured and abused in service of a false ideology, that itself is in service of greed and power.
I’ve said from the beginning of this Substack that what I would be offering is “realistic hope.” That’s not what these scientists identified in this study are offering. They offer a pernicious do-nothingism sadly tagged as “optimism,” which is not based on facts but rather on false ideological beliefs. That’s not optimism. That’s defeatism.
The Markets & Techno-Magic Dodge
The researchers define tech optimism as: “the belief that technology will largely solve the problems caused by climate change.”
Ok, I believe that. Am I a tech optimist?
With this definition they don’t specify whether we’re talking about current tech or future tech or both. Eventually they clarify things further:
“Techno-optimism allows for the eternal delay of transformative change due to a belief in future innovations that render such transformations unnecessary.”
Yea, I don’t believe that crap.
Here’s the survey question they use to get at this belief:
“Advances in technology will largely solve the problems caused by climate change.”
Now here the future aspect is clear. Advances — i.e., stuff that doesn’t yet exist — will largely solve climate change. So there you have it: techno-magic.
Combine this with a belief that markets are the best way to solve society’s problems and you have what I call the Markets-and-Techno-Magic-Dodge. It’s been around for decades, and was used to significantly weaken the treaty that created the international process for addressing climate change.
Bush Sr Used It To Weaken The Climate Treaty
The first politician I remember utilizing the Markets-and-Techno-Magic Dodge extensively was the elder George Bush in the context of the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 and the negotiations and domestic political discussion around the Rio climate treaty, or the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This is the founding treaty for all subsequent international negotiations, which are the annual meetings of all nations who have ratified the treaty, known as Conferences of the Parties to the treaty or COPS. (COP 31 will take place in Antalya, Türkiye, Nov 9-20.)
Before the 1992 Earth Summit there was a big push to have legally-binding targets on climate pollution. To quash that President Bush is reported to have said:
“The American way of life is not up for negotiation. Period.”
To make the case against legally-binding requirements, Bush Sr basically argued that R&D and markets would take care of climate change, with R&D being the government’s contribution. Once his Administration had ensured that nothing legally-binding would be a part of the climate treaty, Bush Sr signed it. It was subsequently ratified by the Senate with a voice vote. It remains the main climate treaty the US is a party to.1 Since then there has been no international agreement from the COPS with legally-binding pollution reductions.
Here are excerpts from Bush Sr’s speech at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit:
There are those who say that it takes state control to protect the environment. Well, let them go to Eastern Europe …
There are those who say that economic growth and environmental protection cannot be compatible. Well, let them come to the United States …
We come to Rio with an action plan on climate change. It stresses energy efficiency, cleaner air, reforestation, new technology. I am happy to report that I have just signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change. …
We come to Rio with an extensive program of technology cooperation. We stand ready, Government and private sector, to help spread green technology and launch a new generation of clean growth.
Now for a simple truth: America’s record on environmental protection is second to none. So I did not come here to apologize.
We believe that the road to Rio must point toward both environmental protection and economic growth, environment and development. By now it’s clear: To sustain development, we must protect the environment. And to protect the environment, we must sustain development.
President Bush conveniently omits that “America’s record on environmental protection” is due to precisely to what he and his Administration worked against for the climate treaty: legal requirements for polluters. Of course, his own record includes the 1990 Clean Air Act that had legal requirements and is rightly considered one of the nation’s best environmental laws. Sadly, with climate change what he offered was the Markets-and-Techno-Magic-Dodge. International climate efforts have yet to completely recover.
Hope-Stealing and The Problem of Overreaction
Tech optimism that forestalls real action in the present to cut climate pollution today is another version of hope-stealing. It highlights why many in the Climate Movement don’t trust that ARTC has a role to play.
As was the case with the memorable John Kerry-Greta Thunberg dust-up in 2021, anyone perceived to be relying too much on future tech at the expense of current action is going to get slammed, no matter who they are.
No one can doubt Secretary Kerry’s commitment to climate action. But in a statement about future tech that was admittedly too strong, saying that 50% of the needed tech hadn’t yet been invented, Thunberg shot back:
“Great news! I spoke to Harry Potter and he said he will team up with Gandalf, Sherlock Holmes & The Avengers and get started right away!”
Any whiff of techno-magic BS, and climate action types are going to pounce right on it.
Sadly, that can be overextended to not appreciating or even opposing ARTC’s needed role. That’s when we get into a danger area. And even going soft on support for ARTC isn’t helpful. We can’t let techno-magic make our hope disappear, or our support for our Third Catalytic Source of Transformation.
Realistic Hope From The Catalytic-4
So what, then, is realistic hope? Realistic hope is grounded in:
the stark reality of climate change today, its growing threat, and the need for speed and scale of transformation never before accomplished in human history; we must see this reality if we are to summon ourselves to this, the greatest cause of our lifetimes;
our three forms of power or P3 : moral power, people power, and staying power; it is our P3 that will win the day and carry us into our brighter future;
who we are, as most supremely revealed in our Ten Movement Values that we live out every moment;
our capacity to summon ourselves and rise to great challenges, as history has shown time and again; this includes our value of creativity and our ability to adapt and think of new ways to meet new challenges.
As I’ve said from the very beginning, our #1 source of hope is ourselves; it certainly isn’t some tech that hasn’t even been invented yet. We are the hope we’ve been waiting for. Together, as The Climate Movement, we make hope happen. History shows that it takes just 3.5% of a population to change the course of the future for the better. I believe we must shoot for 5%, and then 10%. It is our destiny to become the greatest and most long-lasting social change movement in the history of the world.
We aren’t passively waiting around for someone else or some thing or some magical tech from the future to come along and save our butts at just the right moment. That’s not hope. It’s delusion in service of our opposition.
I don’t know if I can be any clearer: we aren’t frikkin’ waiting around.
We are pushing for strong action today with today’s tech, strong action tomorrow with tomorrow’s tech, strong action for the next 50 years. We won’t stop doing things bigger, we won’t stop doing things better.
A huge part of our job is to support and push the other Three Catalytic Sources to do their jobs as we all work together to achieve our vision, purpose, and Major Goal: to overcome climate change by creating a just and prosperous sustainability that enhances wellbeing for everyone and everything.
That includes:
supporting and guiding and pushing Climate Action Supporters (i.e., #2) to join us in pushing the rest of society, especially our political leaders;
supporting and channeling and pushing ARTC (#3) and all those who are a part of it to create and innovate in ways that achieve our Major Goal;
supporting and pushing Governments-&-Markets (#4) to play their roles, with political leaders setting bold requirements and creating the frameworks needed to unleash the power of markets.
If some of these scientists surveyed imbued with bogus optimism keep doing their thing and help create and improve climate solutions — well, that will be great.
But what the rest of us must recognize is that we can’t be lured by a demented deceitful Don’t Worry, Be Happy lullaby that lulls us into a worthless stupor. We aren’t waiting for a techno-magic version of Prince Charming. But neither must we let those pushing the Do-Nothing-Don’t-Worry-Be-Happy crap steal the hope from ARTC that can help energize us today and into the future.
For The Climate Movement to have the people power to play our part we need 5% of the population — that’s 16 million in the US and 400 million worldwide.
In other words, we need YOU! Join us!
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The US is also a party to the 1988 Montreal Protocol to address chemicals creating a hole in the ozone layer. These chemicals are also greenhouse gases. The Reagan Administration (of which Bush Sr was VP) actually worked to strengthen this treaty during negotiations as it was being finalized. Why? Because US companies were ahead of the game in creating safe substitutes for the ozone depleting chemicals.