Renewable Electricity and the Climate Movement
First Take: Findings In Context — The latest IEA report highlights progress, but more is needed
Clean energy is the future in electricity generation, as the IEA graph above shows from their latest report. Not only does this reduce climate pollution from this sector, it can help in the transportation sector as well, which is now the largest source. That’s is due to more EVs running on clean electricity. While we have a long, long way to go on this transition, it’s possible right now (see below).
Here’s the bullet.
Renewables are up and rising.
Coal is down and falling, with carbon pollution following suit.
Carbon intensity (the amount of CO2 per unit of GDP) is also falling, with the EU far ahead of the pack, followed by China and India, with the US significantly in the rear.
Speaking strictly from a tech change perspective, this transition from dirty energy systems to clean ones is remarkable given the resistance; it’s in keeping with other major tech changes in history.
Here are the details from the IEA report itself:
Wind and solar PV are expected to cover over 90% of the increase in global electricity demand in 2025.
Electricity generation from renewable energy sources is forecast to overtake coal-fired generation … as early as 2025 or by 2026 at the latest. … coal’s share in total generation will drop below 33% for the first time in a century. Solar PV and wind energy are central to this shift, with their combined share of global electricity generation forecast to grow from 15% in 2024 to 17% in 2025, reaching almost 20% by 2026 – a near-fivefold increase from just 4% a decade ago.
Global carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are expected to plateau this year, with a slight decline forecast in 2026 as low-emissions sources displace fossil-fired supply. … The rapid deployment of renewables is limiting increases in power generation from fossil fuels.
China, where the share of electricity demand from EVs reached a milestone of 1% in 2024, added more than 5 million new electric vehicles to its domestic fleet in H1 2025, up 32% y-o-y, while consumption from public EV charging infrastructure was 50% higher than in H1 2024.
As the share of low-emissions sources increases, the carbon intensity of global electricity generation is forecast to decline at an average annual rate of 3.7%, falling from 445 g CO₂/kWh in 2024 to 415 g CO₂/kWh by 2026. The European Union is expected to lead this trend, with the steepest average annual reduction of around 10%, dropping from 175 g CO₂/kWh to 140 g CO₂/kWh over the same period. China is also forecast to see a significant decline of more than 5% per year, from 565 g CO₂/kWh in 2024 to 505 g CO₂/kWh in 2026. India’s emissions intensity is expected to fall by 3.8% annually, while the United States is projected to see a 2.2% average annual reduction over the same period.
What about the electrification of the transportation sector?
This graph from Ember shows it is possible right now in almost every part, except for planes and ships, which need further development.
What do these trends mean for the Climate Movement?
The tech change trend from dirty to clean is remarkable, demonstrating why ARTC (the accelerating rate of tech change) and Governments-and-Markets are two of the Catalytic-4. We have help. We don’t have to do it all.
Given the speed and scale of needed change, these trends don’t cut it. On their own, ARTC and Governments-and-Markets can’t overcome climate change. Not even close.
Only with the Climate Movement and Climate Action Supporters, the other two of the Catalytic-4, playing their parts to push governments and businesses and create strategic Catalytic-4 synergies will we overcome climate change by creating a just and prosperous sustainability that enhances wellbeing for everyone and everything.
The electrification of the transportation sector is a perfect example of strategic Catalytic-4 synergy, and the need for the Climate Movement and Climate Action Supporters to push Governments-and-markets to make it happen, with ARTC continuing to invent new tech and innovate existing tech.
We are indispensable. But we have help, and such help creates hope.
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